Russia-Turkey tension: Is Russia hazardous for ‘Arab World model’ Turkey?

Salman Riaz

In the 21s century, Turkey is arguably the most dynamic experiment with political Islam among the 57 nations of the Muslim world. It also offers seminal lessons for the Arab world, despite the tense history (especially during the Ottoman Empire) and many differences. Turkey and its largest political party, the Muslim conservative A.K.P. (Justice and Development Party), is pioneering a new model of democracy in the Middle East. For foreign policy building with other countries, Turkey and Russia related as bilateral relationship each other since many years ago. But, contact between two countries has generally been excessively strained, especially after 24 November 2015 jet shoot down incident, when a Turkish F-16 combat aircraft shot down a Russian Su-24 during an airspace dispute close to Turkish-Syrian border, leaving one pilot dead.

For that event, Kremlin misjudged Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who responded to Russia’s provocations by shooting down a Russian fighter plane over its territory, after warning the Russian fighter to leave its air space 10 times. An enraged Vladimir Putin (Russia’s President) responded with threats and accused Turkey of being “an accomplice to terror” and “stabbing him in the back.” Turkey has vigorously defended its actions, declaring that it gave ample warning to the Russian jet to leave its air space.

Turkey’s shooting down a Russian fighter jet has already turned into a propaganda battle. Russia claims that the Russian aircraft was not in Turkish air space. After the incident, Putin immediately lashed out at what he called Turkey’s complicit attitude toward the Islamic State, also known as ISIS. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov followed by quickly canceling a planned trip to Turkey and urging Russian tourists to avoid traveling there; Russia’s state tourism agency recommended ending package tours to Turkey. Meanwhile, some Russian lawmakers suggested banning all flights between the two countries. Russia’s controlled media released a withering barrage accusing Turkey of being the main sponsor of ISIS and Islamic terrorism. Unconfirmed reports also speak of a Russian military helicopter being shot down by a missile fired by anti-Assad rebels.

In that context, Russia wanted Turkey will express ‘sorry’ for that incident. But, they don’t make any falseness to be sorry, as the view of Turkey. Some days later, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan became worry for Russia’s economic blockade to Turkey and then express sorry. In that duration moment, Russia has been exposed to search earthworm, but snake disclose. Russia spread over by the world most credential news paper and media that the Islamic State earns anywhere from $250,000 to $1.5 million a day from selling oil and refined products like diesel and gasoline, both inside Syria and across the border in Turkey.

Is Russia threatened for Turkey?

On the base of power, it is easily says that, as world top biggest country like Russia is more menacing country. If Russia want to attack Turkey by geological, political and also economical handicapped, then is more possible for them. But, on the context of international politics, it is not difficult to say such like easily. The World politics is now surrounding on the basis of reserving power besides maintaining others regional and international Organization’s presence.

Basically, Russia is not directly threatened for Turkey. If Turkey and Russia continue their fighting, it may threaten NATO’s existence. If Turkey activates NATO’s Article 5, which states that an attack on one Ally shall be considered an attack on all Allies. Putin will resort to nuclear blackmail. NATO oriented 28 member country’s blockade to Russia could face imminence cave.

On the other hand, it could be the lure by America to rival powers Russia. Crimea occupied by Russia and established strong hold position in Syria, this country also powerful. So, US think as rival to Russia. In the context of NATO’s article, if Russia more aggressive on its allies likes Turkey, then all nation states jump to road on Russia. It has to matter to be seen that is Russia steps foot this ‘US trap’?

Moreover, we now understand with clarity that Russia’s entry into the Syrian in the name of fighting with ISIS conflict made the world more dangerous and is unwelcome under any circumstances. We have two sets of forces NATO and its allies and Russia-Iran coalition with contradictory goals, both conducting air wars. They were bound to clash over Syrian territory and perhaps Iraq. The Kremlin must have realized this danger, but recklessly pursued its narrow political goals of saving a despotic client state anyway.

The world is in for a tense time of possible nuclear brinksmanship. If the United States and the other NATO countries blink, NATO is no more.

The ‘jet Biman mistake’ is a simple matter, not to be involved in direct fighting each other. Many have expressed about that like NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg supported Turkey’s right to defend its territorial integrity.

In Washington, US President Barack Obama (meeting with France’s Francois Hollande) expressed hope that this incident not lead to escalation, called for dialogue, and expressed lackluster support for the NATO ally’s right to defend its national air space. Obama promised to consult with Erdogan within a few days and went on to urge Russia to become a full-fledged partner in the fight against ISIS, as if nothing much had happened. It seems as if Obama’s strategy is to stick his head in the sand and hope that the military confrontation between Turkey and Russia will go away.

On the Other hand, Russia blocked Turkey economically recently, but in the view of political experts that it is the temporarily confrontational sleeping fight between them. I think that, at a certain moment this tension will be gone, because the high level of economic relations between Turkey and Russia has become the most important component of bilateral multidimensional relations.

Russia is now the main import source for the Turkish economy. Imports from Russia account for about 13% of overall imports. At the same time, there is a growing interest by the Russian firms, especially in the telecommunications, energy and tourism sectors, in investment in Turkey.

As Tourism sector, where in 1999 the number of Russian tourists visiting Turkey was bellow 500 thousand, this figure reached 3 billion in 2014. The number of Turkish tourist visiting Russia is also rapidly growing and reached about 200 thousand.

But, on the view of Turkey leaders are anxious that the relations between Moscow and Ankara will not return to how they were before, and the current line held by the Turkish authorities doesn't allow for any positive forecasts about future cooperation between the two countries, Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksey Meshkov has said.

He told, “As things stand now, the line that the current Turkish leadership has adopted, both in terms of its complete unwillingness to acknowledge its responsibility for the unprovoked attack on the Russian Su-24, and in terms of getting rid of double standards in the fight against international terrorism, does not allow us to make positive forecasts,” 

Is turkey overact or vice versa:

According to a radar map on the Turkish government, the Turkish territory into Syria is a little like the inside lane. Russia's SU-24 aircraft violated the airspace there.

But a little way to go in aircraft fleet in just a few moments needed. Turkish forces have warned 10 times, but shooting moment, then the aircraft has entered the Syrian border.

There is a background story. Russia is supporting Syria force against the Turkish ethnic militias in northern Syria by Russian air force on the ground. Turkish militia has received the support of Ankara. Turkey angered a lot of Russia's air strikes against them. Meanwhile, on charges of violation of airspace by aircraft shot down Turkey would give Moscow a strong message? Or in the name of defending the sovereignty of Turkey showed a little exaggerated?

Turkey is deeply hostile to the Syrian regime and wants to see the back of Mr Assad as soon as possible. So in this sense, it is at loggerheads with Moscow. Turkey, like Iran, the Saudis and the moderate Arab states, all have a stake in what kind of Syria emerges from this crisis- as, to an extent, does Russia. The US and its Western allies do not much like Mr Assad and see him as very much part of the problem, but their main battle is against IS.

These two wars - the struggle for Syria's future and that against IS - overlap to a considerable extent, but they are far from being the same.

Turkey is ‘Muslim World’s Model:

In the Middle East world Turkey is a model state for Muslim World. From the beginning of Turkey, it’s fighting by tremendous act including demonstrations against secularism, even has to be gone in prison.

The rise of Islamic politics in Turkey was in large part a reaction to the traumatic birth of a modern state after the Ottoman Empire collapsed following World War I. Turkey’s official ideology has been Kemalism, (in the name of Kamal Ataturk) which grew out of the ultra secular views of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic. 

Religious conservatives and ethnic Kurds actively opposed the Kemalist mission to create a Westernized, secular, and homogenous Turkish nation-state. Between 1923 and 1938, the new Kemalist government unleashed its military to suppress a series of Kurdish and Islamist rebellions. 

Turkish politics entered a new era after 1946. When the Cold War divided up the world, Turkey’s decision to turn toward the West and join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) fostered a transition to multiparty democracy. But in 1991, after the Cold War ended and communism collapsed, Turkey’s identity problems rapidly resurfaced. The right and left were no longer able to absorb the passions of Kurdish and Islamic dissent. Turkey was polarized along two axes are ‘Turkish versus Kurdish identity’, and ‘Islamic versus secular identity’. The result was the 1990s ‘a decade of war’ with Kurdish separatists, polarization over the role of religious values, economic turmoil, and unstable coalition governments. 

In 1994, the Welfare Party as the pro-Islamist Party shocked the Kemalist establishment by winning local elections nationwide and capturing control of Turkey’s two largest cities, Istanbul and Ankara. The party was headed by Necmettin Erbakan, who had close connections with Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. The Welfare Party’s victory was short lived. Alarmed that the new government would adopt an overtly Islamic agenda, the military stepped in. 

The Welfare Party’s pragmatic young leaders notably Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Abdullah Gul recognized the red lines of Turkish secularism. Erdogan, then mayor of Istanbul, learned the hard way. In 1999, he spent four months in jail for reciting a poem with Islamic undertones.

In 2001, Erdogan created the Justice and Development Party (AKP), the fifth and final incarnation of the pro-Islamist party. To achieve two crucial objectives, He put democratic reforms at the top of his agenda, seeking to comply with European Union (EU) membership guidelines.

After just 10 years of founding, AKP got power in 12 June, 2011 landslide victory. In Turkey, a tradition of free and fair elections and capitalism has encouraged Islamic parties to play by the rules. Turkey’s radical secularism, enforced by the military, has also tamed the strident religious dogma that once landed Islamic politicians in trouble and even in prison. 

Turkey is notable because its Islamist parties have reemerged, more moderate and pragmatic. Autocratic regimes in the Muslim world often ban religious parties, which then go underground and turn violent. Turkey’s Islamists have taken a different path. Despite being repeatedly outlawed and ejected from power, pious politicians have shunned violence, embraced democracy, and moved into the mainstream. London based weekly newspaper ‘The Economist’ noted in 2008. “No Islamic party has been as moderate and pro-Western like AKP.

The AKP’s journey from political Islam to conservative democracy is not just the result of political expediency or respect for the red lines of Turkish secularism.

The Founder of AKP Erdogan said in 2005, “We are not an Islamic party, and we also refuse labels such as Muslim-democrat.” The AKP leader instead calls the party’s agenda “conservative democracy.” 

The AKP is pragmatically moved to the center-right over a decade, mainly to escape the fate of its defunct predecessors.

At last, we know that Russia and Turkey are related many years ago. In this country, many political parties are banned, but Erdogan’s AKP is now standing in power position. Politically of Turkey, conservative democratic practice, many years stable Islamic party (AKP) and its leadership clearly views that country as a model for other Muslim Countries. So, as a ‘Muslim world model’ Turkey don’t do that sauce act with country like Russia is a most powerful, world influential and top credential country in the world. 

Salman Riaz is Journalist and international affairs analyst.