Muslim divested democratic election, But challenges await behind Suu Kyi

Salman Riaz

Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi completed a remarkable journey on 8 November, when her National League for Democracy won a sweeping victory in Myanmar’s first elections in 25 years. It was the country's first national vote since a nominally civilian government was introduced in 2011, ending nearly 50 years of military rule. Suu Kyi, the daughter of the assassinated Aung Song, who led the country (also known as Burma) to independence from Britain in 1948, was detained under house arrest for years by the country’s authoritarian military, and has worked for decades to bring democracy to her people against long odds and considerable personal hardship.

Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) won the absolute majority of 77.3 percent of the seats. The lower and the upper house, the party gained an absolute majority of 389 seats. For the formation of an independent government in the new seat has given enough power. To achieve the 67 percent needed for an absolute majority of seats in the party. The NLD now has control of parliament and can choose the next president.

On the other hand, the Election Commission announced the ruling military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won 115 seats, which is 10 per cent of the total seats. Five different ethnic groups and independent candidates won the seats. However, due to the violence in the border region did not vote in 7 lower house seats. For the upper house of 56 members of the army and lower house 110 seats are reserved, which is 5 percent of the total seats. The first session of the new parliament is scheduled to hold 016 in January. Presidential elections will be held February ". And in March, the new government will be formed. The new year of the current government's term will end in March.

 

Was this vote democratic?

Everyone can speak this election is democratic. And observers said it was reasonably fair. Things did not get off to smooth start, because there are no Muslim candidates in Myanmar election. And also rohigya Muslim voters are violated to preserve their voting rights. But Khin Maung Thein was the sole Muslim candidate in Mandalay, a thriving Buddhist religious centre in northern Burma (Myanmar) and a place of much religious tension between Buddhists and Muslims. Despite this, Thein’s party, the United National Congress (UNC), has been able to do what so many other parties have chosen not to do – field a Muslim candidate.

Not even Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) has done that, afraid of backlash from Buddhist clerics and other powerful voices that speak out against Muslims. The ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) has no Muslim candidates either, and the election commission has rejected about 100 applications, many of whom are Muslim.

On the other hands, in the run-up to the election campaign voter lists were published and they have been shown to be woefully inadequate. Dead people have been listed, and many of those alive not included.

Not all the seats in the Hluttaw (parliament) are up for grabs. The military-drafted constitution guarantees that unelected military representatives will take up 25% of the seats in the Hluttaw and have a veto over constitutional change. This is what the general’s call "disciplined democracy".

Could Aung San Suu Kyi become president?

For millions of Myanmar voters who flocked to the polls on 8 November, she would be a natural choice for president. Suu kyi’s party NLD has gained total of 389 and 77.3 percent polls. But the 2008 constitution sets out a complex process whereby the Hluttaw (parliament) chooses a president. Though the general election is in November it's likely to be March 2016 before this takes place. Firstly the Hluttaw will divide into three groups: the elected representatives of the Lower House, the elected representatives of the Upper House, and the unelected army representatives. Each group puts forward a candidate and then the three of them face a vote in a joint session, which includes all the elected and unelected representatives of both Houses. The winner becomes president and the two losers’ vice-presidents.

Aung San Suu Kyi may well have leaded her party to a landslide win but she can't become president according to the constitution. Article 59F of the constitution states that if one of your "legitimate children… owes allegiance to a foreign power" you are disqualified. That covers both Ms Suu Kyi's sons Kim and Alexander, who have British passports. A crushing win in the election won't help either, as the unelected army representatives can still block attempts to change this clause. So barring a spectacular change of military heart, it won't be President Suu Kyi in 2016.

If not then who?

Here are rumor broads into the country. It was long assumed that an agreement was in place between Aung San Suu Kyi and army power. In that context, she has already met with the Speaker of the Hluttaw U Shwe Mann. It would have been a grand deal bridging the divide between the military and Ms Suu Kyi. She would back him - in return for promises of constitutional change. Without military backing he was no longer such an attractive choice for Ms Suu Kyi - and he went on to lose his seat anyway.

In an interview with Indian TV in early October, Ms Suu Kyi said that in the event of the NLD winning a majority she had a "civilian" candidate in mind for the top job. In the same breath she stressed that she would still lead the government from parliament, effectively rendering the president a weak puppet. A few possibilities have been mooted for that rather neutered job, but Ms Suu Kyi is keeping her cards close to her chest. One possibility is 88 year old Tin Oo, a former commander-in-chief of the Burmese army and a founding member of the NLD.

Another name that has been mentioned is Win Htein, a former military officer and close confidant of Ms Suu Kyi. A relative youngster at 74, he's risked the scorn of hardline monks by speaking in defence of Muslims in his constituency of Meiktila. But his health is not thought to be good.

What are the nation’s key challenges?

Myanmar has not experienced a democratic transfer of power since the 1960s, so the country is sailing into uncharted waters in modern times. Burned into public memory is the bitter disappointment of the 1990 elections, which were won overwhelmingly by the NLD only to be ignored by the military, which clung to power for another two decades. Suu Kyi’s supporters are not taking a smooth transition for granted and expect a torrid period of political horse-trading before a new government takes power in March. In 1962 the army to seize power after the election was won by the NLD in 1990 under the military dictatorship. In 1990 the NLD won 392 of the 492 available seats, taking 52.5% of the national vote. At the time, the military government for refusing to accept the election results and Suu Kyi was house arrest. The NLD did not take part in the parliamentary elections on November 7 in 2010. Suu Kyi was released from house arrest after six days.  No-one was sure how much support the NLD would get.

Managing the military:

One of the most important aspects of this transition is easing the nerves of a still enormously powerful military. As the daughter of the army’s founding father and independence hero, General Aung San, Suu Kyi has repeatedly said that she is very fond of the military. She has made it very clear that she wants to slowly prize the army away from politics. So, already she started to build ‘national reconciliation’ with military power. Suu kyi has requested by sending letters to talk with parliament speaker Thura Shwe Mann, president Thein Sein- a former junta prime minister and army chief Min Aung Hlang. She has already finished talking parliament speaker Thura Shwe Mann. Junta President and army chief have promised to talk that they will respect the vote and have even gone so far as to congratulate Suu Kyi on her win.

Fixing a broken economy:

Getting down to the business of government is crucial in a nation burdened with deep poverty after years of neglect under the army. International investors are clamoring to get a slice of Asia’s next emerging market, with its 51 million potential customers. But industrialization needs roads, rail and functioning electricity -- all of which are sorely lacking. While the challenges are staggering, Myanmar has rich natural resources and is a key strategic location between China and India.

Subjugating ethnic rebellions:

Conflict has tormented Myanmar’s ethnic minority borderlands for more than half a century. There are many emerging rebellion groups in Myanmar and they are fighting in northern Shan and Kachin states continue to rage. A Suu Kyi government comes with a strong mandate of votes from ethnic constituencies -- but ethnic armed groups are likely to be wary that a deal with her government may not be honored by the army. Myanmar is also facing the pernicious rise of hard-line Buddhist nationalists who have helped stir anti-Muslim bloodshed in recent years, which has hit the Rohingya minority hardest.

Muslims and Rohingya:

Suu Kyi has been criticized by many former admirers overseas for failing to defend Muslim rights and for her silence on the plight of the Rohingya, Myanmar’s persecuted Muslim minority. She has defended her reaction as a means of political survival in the mostly Buddhist country, saying her job is to reconcile the two communities, not to fan divisions. In a pre-election news conference, she urged reporters not to “exaggerate” the Rohingya’s problems in a country with many problems to solve.

The London-based Burma Campaign UK said in a pre-election report that the National League for Democracy “has appeared to pander to prejudice against Muslims rather than challenge it, leaving many Muslims without much hope that the NLD will do much to stop growing anti-Muslim activities” or repeal recently enacted anti-Muslim laws.

Another rights group, the Washington-based United to End Genocide, said in a statement Tuesday that the “poisoned atmosphere” against Muslims in general and the Rohingya in particular could lead to violence that would give the military a pretext for stepping in to protect the peace.

For the first time, about 500,000 normally eligible voters from the country’s 1.3 million-strong Rohingya minority were barred from casting ballots. The government considers them foreigners even though the families of many have lived in Myanmar for generations. Neither the opposition party nor the military-backed ruling party fielded any Muslim candidates.

Myanmar has faced a historic election after 25 years of army rules. People of Burma have gotten polling rights to express their voting power. At last, they got historic election and choose their candidate. Everyone was happy, but fear and qualms to build government avoiding army power. So elected Suu kyi started to talk with army authority and build national reconciliation. But fear and dubitation in Myanmar appears now; it will be cleared away after army government goes back from power till March, 2016.

Perspective, January, 2016

Salman Riaz is Journalist and international affairs analyst.